A working paper dated September 18, 2026 by Federal Reserve Board economist Dino Palazzo argues that R&D expensing and special-item write-downs inflated the CAPE ratio for three decades. The paper’s corrected CAPE-H explains a decade of false alarms, forecasts five-year price gains better and, in December 2025 data, sat above its 97th percentile.
Check packaging limits, duplicate orders, and cash payback before you treat a long AI chip queue as a buy signal.
Learn to separate true chip shortages from planned phase-outs before you judge Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix results.
Compare Apple upgrade and Services trends with Nvidia cloud demand to judge each stock's real risk.
Learn which filings and shipment audits reveal true AI chip share for smarter investing decisions.
Learn when a high dividend yield predicts returns, when it predicts payout cuts, and which yield to watch.
Understand what CAPE signals for returns, why it cannot time a crash, and how to position for lower gains.
See what extreme CAPE meant for 1-, 3- and 5-year returns and how to adjust risk without mistiming.
Learn why post-crash CAPE can look pricey and how to read it without mistiming allocations.
Learn how R&D accounting lifts P/E ratios and how to adjust earnings before judging value stocks.