Record Diesel Prices and Transport Stocks: What Truckers, Rails and Delta Say

Truckers say each $1 rise in diesel costs them about $400 a week, Union Pacific turned fuel surcharges into profit while BNSF fell short, and Delta now sees a $6 billion bigger fuel bill. What companies have disclosed, and what the Russia diesel deal does not change.

Diesel averaged $6.28 a gallon in the U.S. on Tuesday, Oct. 13, up 72% from a year earlier, according to AAA figures reported by CNBC. For anyone holding shares of companies that move freight or people, that is the cost line to watch, and the record diesel prices transport stocks have lived with this year have already shown up in company filings and forecasts. Truckers, railroads and airlines have each described the hit in their own numbers.

Where it stands: On Friday, Oct. 9, Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 profit forecast and said its fuel bill would rise by roughly $6 billion from last year, Reuters reported. The same day, President Donald Trump announced a deal for Russian diesel, which analysts quoted by CNBC say is too small to change the picture much.

Why fuel matters so much for transport companies

Most diesel in the U.S. is burned moving things. The Energy Information Administration says the transportation sector used about 2.94 million barrels per day of diesel in 2025, roughly 75% of all U.S. distillate consumption. In EIA’s words, “Diesel engines in trucks, trains, boats, and barges help transport nearly all products people consume.”

For carriers, that makes fuel one of the biggest costs they cannot avoid. The questions for an investor are how fast a company can pass the cost to customers, and how much of it gets stuck in margins along the way. The answers differ a lot by business model. Whatever carriers do pass on ends up in what shoppers pay, a chain we trace in how diesel prices feed into inflation.

Trucking: the smallest fleets feel it first

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association speaks for owner-operators, drivers who own or lease their own trucks and run them as small businesses. Its president, Todd Spencer, told FleetOwner that “Every $1 increase per gallon in fuel costs our members around $400 more per week, and sustained high prices will put many truck drivers out of business.” OOIDA says roughly 70% of domestic freight moves only by truck and that fuel costs are eventually passed on.

Passing them on is harder for some than others. OOIDA told Newsweek that more than 90% of America’s trucking companies are small businesses, and that its members often work load to load and “can’t simply raise their rates when fuel spikes the way their larger competitors can.” That gap between small operators and large fleets is OOIDA’s description; the trade group did not name specific companies.

The American Trucking Associations made a similar point in September. Henry Hanscom, its chief advocacy and public affairs officer, told Newsweek that “Diesel is one of trucking’s largest operating expenses, so an increase of this magnitude creates immediate pressure on motor carriers, who run on tight margins.” He added there was “no overnight policy fix” for the global energy shock.

Washington’s attempts at relief so far have drawn a cool response from the industry. An executive order signed Oct. 5 allows tax-free dyed diesel in trucks through the end of 2026, according to FleetOwner. OOIDA said it believes that step “will provide minimal relief.”

Railroads: surcharges, and a Union Pacific-BNSF split

Railroads recover fuel costs through surcharges added to shipping bills, and they are the one transport group that has to report both fuel costs and surcharge revenue to regulators, Reuters noted in August. Reuters said carriers across transportation tie those charges to reference prices, including the Energy Department’s on-highway diesel figure.

The filings with the Surface Transportation Board showed a wide split in 2026. In the second quarter, what Union Pacific took in from surcharges topped its fuel spending by US$91.1 million, and it was the only major railroad whose surcharges exceeded fuel costs for the first half, according to Reuters. The company had said surcharges added 14 cents per share to second-quarter earnings. Union Pacific told Reuters that surcharges are part of the overall cost it negotiates with customers.

BNSF, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, went the other way: its surcharges came in US$658.1 million below its fuel costs over the first six months, the STB filings showed. One reason the numbers can swing is timing. Reuters reported that railroad surcharges generally lag fuel price moves by up to two months, so a quarter of fast-rising diesel can leave a railroad behind before the surcharge catches up.

Shippers are paying more as a result. Kyle Henzel of the shipping platform Ship.com told Reuters that rail fuel surcharges overall were up 43 cents a mile since March and had passed their previous record from September 2008.

Airlines: jet fuel, Delta’s forecast cut and higher fares

Airlines burn jet fuel rather than diesel, but jet fuel has surged too since the Iran war began in February. CNBC reported that jet fuel in the U.S. Gulf region had almost doubled to $4.34 a gallon on Oct. 8 from $2.19 a year earlier, according to FactSet. Fuel is airlines’ second-largest cost after labor, CNBC noted.

Delta, the first major carrier to report third-quarter results, now forecasts full-year adjusted earnings of $5.10 to $5.60 a share, down from $6.50 to $7.50 in July, CNBC reported. Reuters said Delta sees its cost per gallon of fuel climbing from $3.61 in the third quarter to $4.25 in the fourth, even after a refinery near Philadelphia that it owns provides more than $700 million in benefit this year. “In a high-cost environment you cannot grow your way out of it,” CEO Ed Bastian said on the earnings call.

Across the industry, fuel spending by U.S. airlines reached $42.9 billion from January through August, $13.2 billion more than in the same stretch a year earlier, Reuters reported, citing government data. Fares have climbed alongside: Bureau of Labor Statistics data put average U.S. airfares from April through August about 25% above the prior year. On Oct. 9, Reuters reported Delta shares down 1.7% in afternoon trading, with United off 1.4% and American and Southwest down about 1% each. Those were intraday figures on a day with several pieces of news, not closing prices.

The record diesel prices transport stocks are living with, in one table

The figures below are what each company or trade group has said or filed. They are not estimates by Life Stonks.

Who What they reported about 2026 fuel costs
OOIDA (small truckers) Each $1/gal rise costs members around $400 more per week
American Trucking Associations Diesel is one of trucking’s largest operating expenses; carriers run on tight margins
Union Pacific Surcharges beat fuel costs by US$91.1 million in Q2
BNSF Surcharges fell US$658.1 million short of fuel costs in H1
Delta Air Lines Annual fuel bill up roughly $6 billion; Q4 fuel seen at $4.25 a gallon

Sources for each row are in the sections above: FleetOwner and Newsweek for the trucking groups, Reuters via BNN Bloomberg for the railroads, and Reuters via The Spokesman-Review for Delta.

What the Russia diesel deal does not change

The Treasury license announced Oct. 9 is a temporary general license for supplying Russian diesel, according to CNBC. Analysts quoted by CNBC doubt it will move costs much for anyone in this article. Goldman Sachs estimated that the Russian volumes due in October and November would lower wholesale diesel prices by $1 to $2 per barrel. Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, pointed out in the same CNBC report that America already exports more diesel than it imports, so it has no need for Russian supply. How the futures market has traded the news is covered in our report on diesel futures after the Russia sanctions easing.

The license does not cover jet fuel, so Delta’s fuel line is outside its scope by design. And EIA’s October outlook, released before the announcement, expects diesel inventories to stay below their 2021-2025 average through its forecast period, keeping retail diesel above $4 a gallon through 2027.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do high diesel prices affect trucking companies?

OOIDA says every $1 rise in the price of a gallon costs its members around $400 more per week, and that small truckers often cannot raise rates as quickly as larger competitors. The American Trucking Associations calls diesel one of trucking’s largest operating expenses for carriers that run on tight margins.

Do railroads make money from fuel surcharges?

Some did in 2026. Reuters reported that Union Pacific’s second-quarter surcharge revenue beat its fuel spending by US$91.1 million, while BNSF’s surcharges ran US$658.1 million short of its fuel costs in the first half. Surcharges generally lag fuel prices by up to two months.

How much is fuel costing Delta in 2026?

Reuters reported that Delta now sees this year’s fuel bill about $6 billion above 2025’s, with fuel at $4.25 a gallon in the fourth quarter. It cut its adjusted 2026 earnings forecast to $5.10 to $5.60 a share.

Will Russian diesel lower costs for transport companies?

Analysts quoted by CNBC expect little effect. Goldman Sachs estimated a wholesale reduction of $1 to $2 a barrel from the October and November volumes, and the license covers diesel, not the jet fuel airlines burn.

Is this article a recommendation on transport stocks?

No. It summarizes what companies and trade groups have disclosed about fuel costs. Life Stonks does not recommend buying or selling any security.

Sources

This article is for general information only and is not investment advice. Life Stonks does not recommend buying or selling any security or commodity. Figures are as reported by the sources cited on the dates shown and can change quickly.